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2018 March Madness Best Upset Picks

2018 March Madness Best Upset Picks

Written by on February 16, 2018

NCAAB News and Betting Previews| Xbet.ag
When March Madness rolls around each year, you know that you’re going to see some upsets emerge. The only upset that has never happened in NCAA tournament play is a 16-seed beating a 1-seed, and some of those upsets have turned into lengthy tournament runs that become “Cinderella” stories. As far as teams that can go on extended runs despite low seeding, check out my other article this morning. If you’re looking for teams that I like to pull off upsets of the “one and done” variety, check out my March Madness betting perspective on these teams.

March Madness 2018 Best Upset Picks

Wagner

This team has made the Big Dance from the Northeast Conference for each of the last six seasons — and they’ve played one game and lost, as a 16-seed on each occasion. They didn’t play well in their stiffest contests this year, non-conference setbacks against Seton Hall and Missouri, but here’s why I would give them a look. They have A.J. Sumbry leading a solid group inside. They rebound well on the offensive end of the floor, and they block shots at an alarming rate. However, they also have an outside dimension, as Blake Francis makes three-balls 42.9% of the time. There’s some balance as well, as JoJo Cooper, Romone Sunders and Nigel Jackson all hoist at least three tries per game from behind the arc, and they each make 35% or more of their attempts. However, they clank a lot of free throws, they don’t shoot well from mid-range, and they turn the ball over a lot. If they are matched up with a team like Kansas, though, who relies a lot on outside shooting and can get lazy on the boards, that could become a shocker.

University of Louisiana

The Sun Belt Conference has given us a number of teams that have pulled off big upsets in March Madness. Two years ago, Arkansas-Little Rock took down Purdue in the opening round, and the year before that, it was Georgia State eliminating Baylor. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a 9-0 Sun Belt record right now — and they have won all nine of those games by at least 10 points. Four of their five starters transferred in from major college programs: Marcus Stroman (South Carolina), Malik Marquetti (USC), Jakeenan Gant (Missouri) and Frank Bartley IV (BYU) all have experience in bigger programs. The team ranks in the top 40 in the nation for defensive three-point rate, assist rate, steal percentage and three-point shooting percentage. However, they live and die with their outside shooting, and if you go cold in March, it’s hard to warm up.

New Mexico State

Back in December, the Aggies took down Illinois, Davidson and Miami (FL). They almost beat USC too, which would have made for an epic road trip. Forward Jemerrio Jones is the story of this team, as he puts up 10.1 points, 11.7 boards and 3.4 assists per game from the point forward position. Their perimeter defense is rock solid, as they hold the opposition to just over 30% shooting from downtown. They also grab defensive rebounds well. However, they rank #328 in the nation in free-throw percentage, which could lead to a major meltdown late.

Buffalo

This team took on four quality programs in their non-conference play: Cincinnati, Syracuse, Texas A&M and St. Bonaventure. They didn’t win any of those games, but they were competitive in all of them. For the losses to Cincinnati and the Bonnies, they didn’t have transfer Wes Clark from Missouri. Since that loss to Texas A&M, Buffalo went on a tear and looks headed to a 12-seed. They have a trio of juniors — Jeremy Harris, C.J. Massinburg and Nick Perkins — who have averaged at least 15 points and 6.5 boards in MAC play. Along with Clark, they have four sharpshooters from downtown. However, they give up way too many free throws (186 combined in their six losses this season), and they clank too many of their own.
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