2018 First Round Betting Preview: Virginia vs. UMBC

The Retrievers of the University of Maryland – Baltimore County made it to March Madness by taking down Vermont in the championship of the America East Conference tournament, winning as ten-point underdogs. They received a 16-seed and face 1-seed Virginia in the first round of the Big Dance on Friday night. The Cavaliers won the ACC regular season and tournament titles, knocking off North Carolina by eight in the tournament championship. Virginia and UMBC last met in 2005, with Virginia winning by 11. Check out our First Round betting preview of this opening-round action from the NCAA basketball tournament.

2018 First Round Betting Preview: Virginia vs. UMBC

Next stop ✈️ Charlotte! #marchmadness #wahoowa pic.twitter.com/OhPbXabDYI

— Virginia Men’s Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 14, 2018

When: Friday, March 16, 2018, 9:20pm ET Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC TV: TNT Radio: None Live Stream: March Madness Live First Round Betting Odds: Virginia -22

Why should you bet on the Cavaliers?

Virginia has made the Big Dance for the fifth straight season, but their 31-2 overall record and 20-1 ACC tally are the best in school history. In their win over North Carolina in the ACC Tournament final, they hit an eye-popping 52.9% of their shots from downtown and 20 of their 22 free throws. Just as impressive was their ball security, as they had only four turnovers in the entire contest. Kyle Guy led the way with 16 points, with Devon Hall chipping in 15 and Ty Jerome adding a dozen. On the season, those were their three leading scorers, all averaging double figures. The strength of Virginia is not their offense, of course. They only average 67.5 points per game, 310th in the nation. Virginia does rank #29 in the nation in three-point shooting, but this is not a run-and-gun team. They grind teams out one possession at a time, which is why they lead the nation in points permitted (53.4 points per game). They also rank third in defensive field goal percentage (37.5%) and fifth in three-point field goal percentage permitted. Virginia has covered the spread just once in their last five NCAA tournament games and has failed to cover the spread in any of their last four games after beating the spread in their previous game.

Why should you put your money on the Retrievers?

This is UMBC’s second appearance in the NCAA tournament, with the first coming ten years ago. They faced the Georgetown Hoyas in the opening round that year and lost by 17 — and if the history of 16-seeds holds form, the Retrievers will go home after one game this year as well. However, when it comes to covering, it’s important to look at the clutch play that they showed in knocking off Vermont. Jordan Lyles put up 27 points in that game, including the game-winning shot from downtown with under a second remaining in the second half. He averaged 20.2 points per game on the season, leading his team. The Retrievers actually shot better from behind the arc (45.5%) in that game than they did overall (44.6%), and they only made half of their free throws. They’ll need to make every free throw they can against Virginia. On the season, the Retrievers have scored 73.9 points per game, 170th in the nation. Their best offensive stat is their three-point shooting, as they ranked 34th in the nation at 38.7%. They permitted 69.5 points per game, which ranks 101st in the nation, but they haven’t played many teams of the caliber of Virginia. They have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games after a straight up victory, and in five of their last eight games against a team with a record better than .500. Given Virginia’s grinding style and UMBC’s decent defense, they have a good shot to stay within 22 points.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I don’t think Virginia will have any trouble beating UMBC. However, this spread is quite large, especially given the style that the Cavaliers play. I see this as a slow game that takes place primarily in halfcourt sets, with the shot clock winding down low almost every time down the floor. I predict a final score of Virginia 70, UMBC 55.