Updated 2018 NBA MVP Betting Predictions – April 17th Edition

Last week, the ESPN Forecast Panel set out predictions for the major awards in the National Basketball Association for the 2017-18 year Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man, Most Improved — and Most Valuable Player. For NBA MVP betting enthusiasts who like to wager on awards, we’ll take a look at the results of the panel and some wagering suggestions for you to consider.

Updated 2018 NBA MVP Betting Predictions – April 17th Edition

Here are the odds for the NBA MVP betting contenders:

• James Harden 1-8
• LeBron James 5-1
• Anthony Davis 18-1
• Kevin Durant 20-1
• Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-1
• Kyrie Irving 28-1
• NIkola Jokic 66-1
• DeMar DeRozan 100-1
• Joel Embiid 125-1
• Chris Paul 125-1

The ESPN forecast panel ranked the top six way:

• James Harden (with 70.7% of the first-place votes)
• LeBron James (27.6%)
• Anthony Davis (0%)
• Damian Lillard (0%)
• Kevin Durant (1.7%)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (0%)

Obviously, the odds and the panel have Harden as a heavy favorite. Let’s look at some reasons why. He averages 30.6 points per game, posting a 62 percent true shooting percentage. He averages 8.7 assists per game as well. There’s only one other player who has ever averaged 30+ points, 8+ assists and a true shooting percentage of 60+, and that player is Michael Jordan. Harden can score off the pick and roll, isolation, or the handoff and screen. Adding Chris Paul to the Rockets’ lineup brought a second ball handler to the lineup, which allowed coach Mike D’Antoni’s offensive system to take off. When Harden has an isolation possession, he scores an average of 1.24 players each time. Since Synergy Sports began tracking that metric in the 2004-2005 season, no player has gotten close. There have been 35 individual seasons in which a player had at least 500 isolation possessions, and the average was 0.95. He has more total points in isolation (868) than any other team — Cleveland comes in next with 801. One reason for this is that, for many teams, the isolation possession actually stops the operation of an offense. However, no player is skilled at getting to the rim, drawing contact or draining three-balls off iso possessions like Harden is. Then there’s the step-back three-pointer. Harden is 79 for 176 on the season when he steps back behind the line to shoot. The next-highest total for a team in steo-back threes is Denver, with 122. How about getting to the charity stripe? Harden has driven to the rim 1,213 times this season, according to Second Spectrum, and he has drawn 140 fouls. The only other player with more than 100 fouls drawn on drives to the rim is DeMar DeRozan. Harden does sell the contact, swinging his arms as though he’s been knocked off a carousel. On the defensive end of things, Harden has long been a liability. However, he has finally bought in on defense. He permits fewer than 0.8 points per game when his man posts him up or has the ball in isolation, and he is in the league’s top 25 for loose balls recovered and deflections, and he pulls down almost five defensive rebounds per game. So while he isn’t a shutdown defender, he holds his own. What about LeBron James? He did play in all 82 regular-season games for the first time in his career. He has led a team that saw a major roster overhaul at the trade deadline, and while the results have been mixed, it is clear that without LeBron, the Cavaliers would have had a hard time making the postseason. However, Harden is more of a game-changer for the Rockets than LeBron has been for Cleveland this year. How should you bet, then? The path looks clear for Harden — which is why those odds are so miserly for him. There are many other bets that will bring in a larger profit, but it’s almost impossible to see the preponderance of the ballots having any other name than James Harden for MVP.