We’re nearing the end of the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, with the Eastern Conference semifinals set while the Western Conference bracket still has to be sorted out. The Boston Celtics will meet the Philadelphia 76ers in one semifinal round, while the Miami Heat, who just knocked off the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, will take on the New York Knicks. In the West, the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets have advanced to the conference semifinals, but the Sacramento Kings-Golden State Warriors and the L.A. Lakers-Memphis Grizzlies series have all moved to a Game 6. As you think about your NBA betting for the second round and beyond, check out some of our tips.
NBA Betting News: Playoff Betting Tips in Conference Semifinals
Back home teams that are down 0-2 in a series
No team has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a seven-game series in the history of the league. So when a team loses the first two games on the road, it will return home with a sense of urgency – and its fans will feel that urgency as well. You can pick teams to win the first quarter and the first half of those games, in addition to wagering on the final outcome, which means you can build your profits even higher. With the support of a home crowd and the helpful officiating that also tends to come at home, this is a solid pick. Since 2005, teams entering Game 3 at home down 0-2 in the series have gone 80-38-2 against the spread. Between 2015-16 and 2018-19, the trend improved even further to 29-6 against the spread before cooling off a bit in the 2020-21 playoffs. Even so, it’s something to consider.
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Shy away from teams that just finished a seven-game series
Teams that win Game 7 to advance to the next round are just 32-49 straight up in Game 1 of the next series. The fatigue and wear-and-tear of those extra games are significant. In four of the last seven NBA Finals, injuries to key players have had a significant impact. Consider the Achilles tear that Kevin Durant suffered, Kevin Love’s shoulder, Chris Paul’s finger and wrist, Stephen Curry’s sprained MCL, and Klay Thompson’s ACL tear.
This trend also affects the entire next round, as teams that prevail in Game 7 go just 34-46 in the next round. You also want to look at teams who just came through a gauntlet of a series. What will the Boston-Philadelphia winner have left for the New York-Miami winner, for example?
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Take a hard look at the under
Between the 2015-16 and 2020-21 seasons, games featured between 1.8 and 3.1 fewer possessions on average. That number grew over the last three years in that sample (-2.5 for 2018-19, -2.7 for 2019-20, -3.1 for 2020-21). The NBA is seeing faster pace and higher offensive ratings due to more three-point shooting. Unders were only 43-46-2 in the 2020-21 postseason, but they were profitable in five of the seven seasons ending in 2020-21. In Game 7s, the under went 35-22 over that six-season stretch. Why? Defense becomes more important in the playoffs than in the regular season, where teams are more likely to just try and outscore each other. The postseason involves more crucial games and brings more defensive effort. Also, as the series goes on, players wear down – and coaches run out of adjustments to make after having the same team see them so many games in a row. In 2020-21, Game 7 unders went just 1-2, but between 2005-2006 and 2020-21 have gone 32-21. If you go back to a 25-year sample size, the under has a 41-27-1 record in Game 7s. Game 6 unders also have some promise; between 2005-2006 and 2020-21, the under went 79-61 in Game 6 matchups – for similar reasons.
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