The Pittsburgh Pirates (57-69) are finally starting to see consistent offensive production from Ke’Bryan Hayes. The third baseman is already one of the best defenders at his position in MLB, and when he joined the Pirates in 2020, his first 24 games were a power display. Then the pitching caught up with him, and his batting suffered. For the last 40 games, though, he has found his swing. In June and August (he missed most of July with a hip/back injury), he has hit .311 with a .510 slugging percentage, with an .839 OPS. That slugging percentage would rank in the top 15 if he had enough at-bats to qualify. He’s also popped six home runs. That kind of offense will help the Pirates as they continue their rebuild curve. The Pirates host the Chicago Cubs (65-60) in a four-game set that starts Thursday. The Cubs are just 3 ½ games behind Milwaukee for the National League Central lead, and they are in a tie with Arizona for the second NL wild card. Read our MLB betting preview for each of the four contests between Cubs vs Pirates.
MLB Cubs vs Pirates Betting Lines
» August 24-27, 2023
Justin Steele (Cubs) vs Undecided (Pirates)
When: Thursday, August 24 at 7:05 pm ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV/Streaming: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Justin Steele (14-3, 2.80 ERA) (CHI) vs Undecided (PIT)
Justin Steele has not taken a loss in a start since July 16. He hasn’t been pitching shutdown ball in August, with a 4.43 ERA, but he does have a 3-0 record for the month in four starts as the Cubs’ bats have shown up for him. In his last start, he allowed a pair of runs on six hits over six innings, striking out seven without a walk. In three of his four August starts, he has not allowed a single free pass. If he can pass a lead onto his bullpen again, the Cubs have a solid chance here.
The Pirates will either use a spot starter or a long relief committee on Thursday and Saturday, at least at this point. Given Steele’s quality stuff and ability to eat six innings regularly, then the Cubs should be able to put up enough runs to take this game. In Steele’s last five starts, the run totals for both teams have been: 13, 29, 10, 9, 10. If you find a run total for Thursday that is 8 ½ or less, I’d jump on that over. Cubs to win, take the over.
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Kyle Hendricks (Cubs) vs Mitch Keller (Pirates)
When: Friday, August 25 at 7:05 pm ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV/Streaming: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 3.83 ERA) (CHI) vs Mitch Keller (10-8, 4.22 ERA) (PIT)
Kyle Hendricks has a 5.48 ERA for the month of August, but most of that damage came from a seven-run pounding the Atlanta Braves gave him over four innings back on August 4. The bullpen let him down in the two starts after that, but he was able to guide the Cubs to a 4-3 win on Sunday over the Royals, allowing a single run on five hits, striking out three and walking one.
Mitch Keller had a solid 12:1 K:BB ratio in his last outing as the Pirates down the Twins, 7-4. He allowed a pair of runs on seven hits in the outing. Since August 3, he has only allowed six earned runs (seven total) over 17 innings, permitting just one home run. Keller’s ERA has climbed from 3.31 at the All-Star break to 4.22 now, but that is based primarily on two ugly July starts to start the second half and an August 3 debacle in Milwaukee. Pirates to win.
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Javier Assad (Cubs) vs Undecided (Pirates)
When: Saturday, August 26 at 7:15 pm ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV/Streaming: FOX
Projected Pitching Matchup: Javier Assad (2-2, 3.13 ERA) (CHI) vs Undecided (PIT)
Javier Assad moved from the Cubs’ bullpen to the rotation on July 31, and his stamina and success have improved. He lasted seven strong innings in Toronto on August 11, allowing one run on four hits. In his last two starts, he allowed five runs (four earned) on nine hits, including three home runs, over 11 ⅓ combined innings in team wins over the White Sox and the Tigers, although he did not get the decision himself. Given that the Pirates are going with another spot starter or long relief game, the Cubs should be able to take this one. Cubs to win.
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Drew Smyly (Cubs) vs Bailey Falter (Pirates)
When: Sunday, August 27 at 1:35 pm ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV/Streaming: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Drew Smyly (9-9, 5.28 ERA) (CHI) vs Bailey Falter (1-7, 4.53 ERA) (PIT)
Drew Smyly had a great start to 2023, posting a 2.60 ERA through his first 10 starts. However, he got moved to the bullpen in July and is coming back out to make this spot start. On Tuesday, he only made it 3 ⅔ innings, allowing seven runs on eight hits, including a pair of long balls, in an 8-6 loss to a Detroit Tigers team that is not going anywhere this season.
Bailey Falter was shipped from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh in time to make his Pirates’ debut on August 5. Before that, injuries had kept him on the shelf since May 15. In August, he has a 3.26 ERA, and he has allowed just two earned runs on seven hits over 11 ⅓ combined innings in his last two starts, both wins over th eMets and Cardinals. Pirates to win.
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NL Central Standings
Cubs vs Pirates
| Updated at August 23th | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | % | GB | STRK | HOME | AWAY |
| Brewers | 69 | 57 | .548 | – | W4 | 34-27 | 35-30 |
| Cubs | 65 | 60 | .520 | 3.5 | L1 | 5-30 | 30-30 |
| Reds | 65 | 61 | .516 | 4.0 | W1 | 31-34 | 34-27 |
| Pirates | 57 | 69 | .452 | 12.0 | W2 | 31-32 | 26-37 |
| Cardinals | 55 | 72 | .433 | 14.5 | L2 | 28-37 | 27-35 |
W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away
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