We’re just a day away from the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby, and in the last day before the race, some bizarre movement is taking place in the sports betting. Essential Quality opened as the heavy favorite (+200) after the post draw, but he has moved up to +500 in the last day or so. Now, it looks like Hot Rod Charlie will be the top choice. He started at +800 but is now +450. Essential Quality now faces the same odds as Rock Your World.
Let’s look at some of the late developments as you consider your Kentucky Derby wagering strategy.
Horse Racing News: Kentucky Derby Updates
What’s the deal with Essential Quality? Well, his owner is Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai. Claims that the sheikh has captured his adult daughter, Princess Latifa, and is holding her in captivity. Sam Marcosson, a law professor at the University of Louisville, has filed a complaint asking that the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission bar the sheikh from any horse racing activities so long as his daughter is not free. The sheikh’s Godolphin horse racing empire has created a lot of jobs in Kentucky, so there is a lot of leverage in the industry that is quaking. The commission has ruled that Essential Quality can still race, but it is possible that this uncertainty has shifted the betting action.
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Early Odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Known Agenda | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr | +600 | +1100 |
| 2 | Like the King | Wesley Ward | D. van Dyke | +5000 | +5100 |
| 3 | Brooklyn Strong | Danny Velazquez | U. Rispoli | +5000 | +3900 |
| 4 | Keepmeinmind | Robertino Diodoro | D. Cohen | +5000 | +4000 |
| 5 | Sainthood | Todd Pletcher | K. Carmouche | +5000 | +2800 |
| 6 | O Besos | Gregory Foley | M. Pedroza | +2000 | +3400 |
| 7 | Mandaloun | Brad Cox | F. Geroux | +1500 | +2700 |
| 8 | Medina Spirit | Bob Baffert | J. Velazquez | +1500 | +1100 |
| 9 | Hot Rod Charlie | Doug O’Neill | F. Prat | +800 | +450 |
| 10 | Midnight Bourbon | Steve Asmussen | M. Smith | +2000 | +1100 |
| 11 | Dynamic One | Todd Pletcher | J. Ortiz | +2000 | +3500 |
| 12 | Helium | Mark Casse | J. Leparoux | +5000 | +3600 |
| 13 | Hidden Stash | Vicki Oliver | R. Bejarano | +5000 | +2900 |
| 14 | Essential Quality | Brad Cox | L. Saez | +200 | +500 |
| 15 | Rock Your World | John Sadler | J. Rosario | +500 | +500 |
| 16 | King Fury | Ken McPeek | B. Hernandez | +2000 | +2300 |
| 17 | Highly Motivated | Chad Brown | J. Castellano | +1000 | +1100 |
| 18 | Super Stock | Steve Asmussen | R. Santana | +3000 | +3100 |
| 19 | Soup and Sandwich | Mark Casse | T. Gaffalione | +3000 | +2100 |
| 20 | Bourbonic | Todd Pletcher | K. Carmouche | +3000 | +2400 |
Why would Essential Quality fall so far? It doesn’t just have to do with the controversy surrounding his ownership. He has won all five of the races he has entered, and four of those were graded stakes. One of the other top horses, Known Agenda, the winner of the Florida Derby, looked like a potential rival until he drew that #1 post. It’s been 35 years since that spot produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Coming out along the rail puts horses right in the middle of traffic, and it can be hard to escape. He did put up that 112 Equibase number at the Florida Derby, but it will be hard to generate similar speed on the rail.
Hot Rod Charlie, winner of the Louisiana Derby, is trained by Doug O’Neill, who has led two horses to victory at Churchill Downs. The win at Fair Grounds and that training pedigree have him as the favorite right now.
Highly Motivated almost beat Essential Quality a month ago. His trainer, Chad Brown, has been named Trainer of the Year four times. Medina Spirit, a Bob Baffert horse, will bring the effort but any enthusiasm on that wagering front will come from the trainer’s name.
Sainthood has crept closer in terms of odds. That big finish at the Jeff Ruby Steaks is his signature result so far, along with having Churchill Downs guru Calvin Borel in the saddle.
With the rise in O Besos’ odds, that value becomes even more intriguing. He pushed hard down the stretch at the Louisiana Derby, in a close third-place finish after Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him grab an exotic finish.
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
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