Early voting in the United States for the 2020 presidential election begins in less than two months in many states. It appears that the two main candidates will be the incumbent, President Donald J. Trump, and his challenger from the Democratic Party, former Vice President Joseph Biden. We are in the middle of the 2020 Democratic Convention, with the Republica Convention slated for next week. When the odds for the 2020 election were first offered in the summer of 2019, Trump was the favorite, with Kamala Harris, a Democratic senator, as the second choice. Her campaign fizzled out early, though, and now the Democratic nominee, Vice President Biden, is the favorite.
Let’s look at the updated odds as you consider whether American politics should be a part of your betting on US Politics.
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Trump 2020 Odds and Updates
The Democratic Convention has not come to an end, which means that Biden is not formally the nominee. Given his advanced age, things could happen that would change the nomination. The same goes for Trump; his age could cause problems, and given the chaos that is surrounding his decisions with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is the chance that Republicans could scuttle his nominee — an infinitesimal chance, but still a chance.
| Current Presidential Odds | |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -145 |
| Donald J. Trump | +125 |
| Hillary Clinton | +5000 |
| Michelle Obama | +10000 |
| Bernie Sanders | NL |
| Mike Pence | +8000 |
| Kanye West | +10000 |
| Andrew Cuomo | +15000 |
| Nikki Haley | +15000 |
Joe Biden currently leads Donald J. Trump by double digits in national polls. There are several factors at work, the most significant of which has been Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that Trump has admitted that he worked to slow down national testing and has peddled such “cures” as hydroxychloroquine (which the FDA ultimately rejected as a treatment) and, more recently, oleandrin (which comes from the toxic oleander flower) has brought him nationwide scorn.
So how is Trump still close to the top of the odds list? His approval rating still hovers around the 40 percent rating. Many of his supporters still believe that the COVID-19 virus is comparable to the flu in terms of severity and that it is almost impossible to spread, especially for children. So they consider his handling of the pandemic a success and are blaming the Democratic Party for keeping the economy from getting back up and running.
This situation is the result of the two-party system in the United States. Having just two choices makes for a polarized electorate, and no President has capitalized on the chance to divide people more than Trump has.
How is Hillary Clinton still on the list? Well, she ran against Trump in 2016, and there is a sizable crew who would love to see her nominated again, even though she did not run for President. What about Michelle Obama? She is an eloquent speaker who had several positive policy initiatives as First Lady, and many Democrats would have loved to see her run — and would love to see the Democratic Party insert her or Secretary Clinton as the nominee.
Andrew Cuomo has been named as another last-minute replacement for Biden. Cuomo is much younger than Biden and has done a fairly solid job helping New York State come through the pandemic more quickly than other parts of the country.
Nikki Haley is a Republican who might stand a much better chance than Trump at this point. She was his ambassador to the United Nations until she resigned, and she has built conservative bullet points on her resume. However, the Republican Party is very unlikely to pull away from an incumbent President.
Mike Pence is Trump’s Vice President. There are also scenarios in which Trump pulls out at the last minute; this theory argues that he is tired of serving as President and just wants out. Pence could take his place on the ticket, hypothetically.
Kanye West has mounted an independent run for President, and he has had help from the Republican National Committee in several states where he is trying to get on the ballot. It looks like he is running in collusion, at least to some degree, with Trump, looking to peel away some of the conservative African-American vote from Biden.
Bernie Sanders was the front-runner for the Democratic nomination until he lost the primary in South Carolina to Biden, and then former President Obama told the centrist candidates remaining to drop out and support Biden. After that, the tide turned against Sanders, who ended up endorsing Biden.
