One quirk about American presidential politics is that the office-holder has been limited to two elected terms for almost 70 years. The original U.S. Constitution did not put a limit on how many times the President could run, but when Franklin D. Roosevelt won in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944 before passing away in 1945, the country decided to pass an amendment limiting the President to two terms. The only President to win office then opt out of running at the end of his first term was James K. Polk, who was elected in 1844 and promised that he would only serve that term. He showed himself to be an unusual politician when he actually kept that promise and did not run in 1848. It’s fairly rare for a President to lose his bid for re-election, but that’s what happened to Donald J. Trump when he ran for re-election in 2020. He is almost certainly going to be the nominee of the Republican Party in the 2024 election as he is bidding to become just the second President to serve a term, lose his re-election bid, win in the next election and serve another term. The first was Grover Cleveland – who also became the first (and only) President to get married in the White House. If you live in the United States, you can’t engage in legal US Politics Odds and sports betting on political elections, but people in other countries can, and a replay of Trump vs Joe Biden in the 2024 election is drawing plenty of buzz.
US Politics Odds: Betting on the 2024 Presidential Election
Closer odds since early March
After the Super Tuesday round of primaries, Trump’s odds stood at +108 on Betfair, while Biden’s stood at +185. Since then, President Biden delivered what was seen as a strong State of the Union address. The unwillingness of the Republican Party to allow passage of border security legislation seems to have taken the heat off the Democrats with this issue. Also, the issue of abortion access seems very important to voters. In a recent special election to fill a legislative seat in Alabama, a Democratic candidate beat her Republican counterpart by 25% in a district that Trump won in routs in both 2016 and 2020. The Republican Party has made a priority of removing access to abortion, without providing exceptions for claims of rape or instances of incest, and has even made abortion extremely difficult to obtain in Republican-controlled states to protect the life of the mother. Court rulings by Republican-appointed judges have also placed in vitro fertilization (IVF), a common method for achieving pregnancy for couples who have had difficulty through other means, at risk. Taking away access to these procedures has led to a national backlash against the party.
What factors could help Trump?
In addition to border security, rising prices for consumers are an area of frustration. Gas prices and grocery prices, in particular, have risen significantly since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. The United States does not have price controls (nor would their legislative bodies likely ever pass them except in case of emergency need), but this still doesn’t keep people from blaming the President when prices increase. Also, the ongoing invasion of Gaza by the Israeli military has voters on the more liberal side of the Democratic Party urging Biden to push Israel toward peace. The upcoming hush money trial for Trump, of course, could lead to criminal convictions that would not disqualify him from election but could take more voters away from his side.
Odds to Win US Presidential Elections
- Donald Trump -105
- Joe Biden +120
- Robert Kennedy Jr. +2000
- Michelle Obama +2000
- Gavin Newsom +3500
- Kamala Harris +3500
- Nikki Haley +6000
- Gretchen Esther Whitmer +7000
- Hakeem Jeffries +10000
- Hillary Clinton +20000
- Elizabeth Warren +20000
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2024 Presidential Election Odds
In 1934, American author Nathanael West published A Cool Million, a satirical novel ridiculing the political process in the country. At the time, the United States was languishing in the Great Depression, despite early efforts by President Franklin D. Roosevelt to restart the economy, and the nation was still recovering from the trauma of World War I. West’s book includes the character Shagpoke Whipple, a former President who has started the National Revolutionary Party, an organization that Whipple uses to make himself rich by scamming naive people. Whipple ends up in prison for corruption – but then gets out and becomes President again, an outcome that seems absurd. At least it used to seem absurd until the spectacles that have taken place since the rise of Donald J. Trump to the presidency in 2016. With the upcoming presidential election causing even more intrigue than usual this time around, let’s look at the US Politics betting odds for each of the declared and potential candidates for office in 2024.
Betting on US Politics: Odds to Win the Presidency in 2024
Not everyone on the list has declared their candidacy for President yet, of course. Biden and Trump have, as has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nikki Haley is also in. After that, though, the list is just speculative. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is expected to announce his candidacy later in May, but he hasn’t even made it onto the odds list.
Will any of the other candidates on this list declare? Ron DeSantis, currently the governor of Florida, is widely expected to enter the race. However, his polling has slumped in recent weeks, as his battle with Disney over Florida legislation targeting members of the LGBTQ+ community has raged on, even wearing out his welcome with fellow Republicans. Stories about bizarre behavior, such as sitting in meetings and eating pudding by hand, three fingers at a time, have emerged, and Donald Trump has started pointing his attacks at DeSantis as well.
Kennedy’s candidacy has more gadfly status than anything else. He has indicated that he believes vaccines are dangerous but is running as a Democrat, the party in which his uncles, John and Ted, and his father, Robert Sr., served as respected leaders. The party more likely to sympathize with anti-vaccine views is the Republican Party, so Kennedy is more of a curiosity than anything.
Haley, formerly the governor of South Carolina, already made waves by predicting that President Biden will die within the next five years anyway, ostensibly suggesting that no one should vote for anyone as old as the sitting President who, if re-elected, will finally leave office in 2029 at the age of 86, which would make him the oldest President ever. Biden is only two years older than Trump, who last week declined to testify in a civil trial accusing him of sexual battery and defamation. That almost certain verdict of liability should be enough to finish Trump’s candidacy, but there are many who will vote for him no matter what he does.
Bernie Sanders ran in 2016 and 2020, finding considerable support among independents, progressive Democrats and young voters, but Democratic Party machinations (and turnout from centrist Democrats) kept him from the party’s nomination both times. He has already said he would support Biden’s re-election, so it’s extremely unlikely that he would run.
Gavin Newsom is an interesting name. The governor of California is a Democrat, and it is unlikely that he would challenge Biden and run. However, he has placed ads in Florida, positioning himself as a national personality, perhaps thinking ahead to 2028. If Biden were to suffer from ill health in the last year of his first term and decide not to run, Newsom would become an immediate front-runner.
US Politics Candidate Odds
- Joe Biden +150
- Donald Trump +250
- Ron DeSantis +600
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. +2000
- Kamala Harris +2000
- Nikki Haley +3300
- Gavin Newsom +4000
- Pete Buttigieg, Michelle Obama +5000
- Gretchen Whitmer, Hillary Clinton, Tucker Carlson, Vivek Ramaswamy +6600
- Alexander Ocasio-Cortez, Candace Owens, Bernie Sanders, Mike Pence +10000
- Andrew Yang, Bill Gates, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, Kanye West, Mike Pompeo +20000
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