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On Saturday night, Gilbert Burns enters a main event bout at UFC Fight Night in an unfamiliar roles. Burns is a +500 underdog versus undefeated Michael Morales. Before Morales and Burns throw down in the headliner, Sodiq Yusuff takes on Mairon Santos in what should be one of the most competitive bouts of the night. Check out UFC odds, analysis, and picks for the main card at this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.
Bet UFC on ESPN: Burns vs Morales Odds, Prediction and Preview
ESPN/ESPN+ will carry the whole night’s action. Don’t miss our sports betting predictions on the top two fights on the card.
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales
- Also Known: UFC Fight Night 256 / UFC Vegas 106 / UFC on ESPN+ 114
- When: Saturday, May 17 at 7:00 pm ET+
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada+
- TV/Streaming: ESPN/ESPN+
UFC on ESPN+ 114: Burns vs Morales Odds provided by Xbet
Julian Erosa +145 vs Melquizael Costa -175
The underdog has some physical advantages that should make him tough against the favored Melquizael Costa. Julian Erosa is 6’ 1” compared to Costa a 5’ 10. Also, Erosa has a 3.5 inches reach advantage.
In addition, Erosa has won three straight: two via submission over Ricardo Ramos and Christian Rodriguez and a knockout victory in his last against Darren Elkins. Costa has also won three straight. But the chalk decisioned Rodriguez. The odds make the dog more than playable.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Julian Erosa
^Dustin Stoltzfus +250 vs Nursulton Ruziboev -320
It could be a long night for underdog Dustin Stoltzfus. Stoltzfus gives up a massive 5 inches in height to Ruziboev.
Not only does Stoltzfus give up the height advantage but Ruziboev has won 4-of-5. This is going to be an interesting fight because Stoltzfus lists himself as a Muay Thai kickboxer while Ruziboev lists himself as a kickboxer, meaning the fave most likely adheres to the Danish school of kickboxing. Kickboxers like the chalk know how to use their physical advantages. Expect an early Stoltzfus exit.
^Sodiq Yusuff +110 vs Mairon Santos -130
Expect a great bout when Yusuff and Santos throw down in the Octagon. Santos, the favorite, is on a 4-match winning streak. Mairon is just 24 years old, which means he’s got tremendous upside.
Yusuff has much more UFC experience than Santos. Still, the young mixed martial artist took home the Ultimate Fighter title against Kaan Ofli a few bouts ago. I thought Yusuff had a shot and he offers some value, but it’s hard to go against the favorite considering how hungry he is.
^Rodolfo Bellato -600 vs Paul Craig +400
This sets up as a bout to make Rodolfo Bellato look good. Paul Craig hasn’t been the same for a while. He’s lost 4-of-5 and the defeats have come via submission, knockout, and decision. So whatever Craig has tried to do in recent bouts, it hasn’t worked.
Bellato drew in his last but before the draw, he had been on a tear when winning 4 straight. The massive favorite is 12-2-1 overall, 7-2 via knockout, and 4-0 via submission. Craig shouldn’t make it to the third round.
^Gilbert Burns +500 vs Michael Morales -850
Welterweight – Main Event
It would be nice to pick Burns to upset Morales. The odds are fantastic and Burns can still throw but this is a mismatch. The dog has lost three straight. The losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Belal Muhammed, who just fought for the title that went to Maddalen, we can forgive. But the loss to Sean Brady was a lackluster performance.
Michael Morales is undefeated with a 17-0 record. He’s 12-0 via TKO/KO. So consider a knockout prop on the chalk before backing him on the moneyline.
^^Gilbert Burns at +500 is disrespectful.
— I AM SATURDAY (@I_AM_SATURDAY) May 14, 2025
His 3 fight losing steak came from Brady (#2 at WW), Muhammad (#1 at WW), & JDM (WW champ).
The loss before that was to Chimaev (MW title challenger).
Morales is talented, will most likely win, but Burns should sit at roughly +250. pic.twitter.com/yU6i8ht1eS
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