UFC 230 Betting Preview & Picks

On Saturday night, UFC moves to New York City’s Madison Square Garden, a storied venue that has hosted some of the most important matches in the history of professional fighting. UFC 230 will feature a heavyweight title fight between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis on the main card, along with a bout between Chris Weidman and Ronaldo Souza as the co-main event. We’ve put together a UFC 230 betting preview for you with the entire list of fights as well as our comments on the main event, the co-main event and some of the preliminary bouts. The action starts at 10:00pm Eastern time and is available only on pay-per-view.

UFC 230 Betting Preview & Picks

What are you going to do when there’s blood in the water? #UFC230 pic.twitter.com/9O5cT2PF5B

— UFC (@ufc) October 30, 2018

Main Card (10:00pm ET, PPV)

• Daniel Cormier (21-1, 1 NC) vs Derrick Lewis (21-5, 1 NC) (heavyweight title bout)
• Chris Weidman (14-3) vs Ronaldo Souza (25-6, 1 NC) (middleweight) (co-main event)
• David Branch (22-4) vs Jared Cannonier (10-4) (middleweight)
• Karl Roberson (6-1) vs Jack Marshman (22-7) (middleweight)
• Derek Brunson (18-6) vs Israel Adesanya (14-0) (middleweight)

Preliminary Card (8:00pm ET, FS1)

• Jason Knight (20-4) vs Jordan Rinaldi (13-6) (featherweight)
• Sijara Eubanks (3-2) vs Roxanne Modafferi (22-14) (women’s flyweight)
• Julio Arce (14-2) vs Sheymon Morales (10-2) (featherweight)
• Lyman Good (19-4, 1 NC) vs Ben Saunders (22-10-2) (welterweight)

Early Preliminary Card (6:15pm ET, UFC Fight Pass)

• Matt Frevola (6-1) vs Lando Vannata (9-3-1) (lightweight)
• Shane Burgos (10-1) vs Kurt Holobaugh (17-5) (featherweight)
• Brian Kelleher (19-9) vs Montel Jackson (3-1) (bantamweight)
• Adam Wieczorek (10-1) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (15-5-1) (heavyweight)

Daniel Cormier (-700) vs Derrick Lewis (+500) features one of the all-time legends in the UFC heavyweight division in Cormier against a heavyweight slugger who relies on big bombs to deliver knockouts in Lewis. Cormier already had built a reputation as an elite wrestler before he came to MMA, making his debut at the age of 30. It didn’t take him long at all to develop a boxing game to mirror his wrestling skills, and so before he was 33 he had won the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix, taking down Josh Barnett. Cormier dominated Volkan Oezdemir at the 205-pound division earlier in 2018 and then moved up to heavyweight to take on Stipe Miocic, wiping the floor with him to have belts in two divisions. Lewis did win at UFC 229, taking down Alexander Volkov, but the win was a roller coaster ride. He ran out of gas early in the fight but was still able to outlast Volkov, taking a bunch of bombs before mounting a furious comeback in the waning minutes of the fight. This means that he is fighting for a title less than a month after that bout, so recovery will certainly be an issue. The moneyline doesn’t offer much value, but that shows the deep hole Lewis is in. UFC 230 Prediction: Cormier wins via decision Chris Weidman (-170) vs Ronaldo Souza (+140) gives us a former middleweight champ in Weidman and a well-known submission expert in Souza. Weidman has gone 2-1 since losing his belt, but he did win his last bout by submission. However, it’s been well over a year since that bout, back in July 2017. That combination of accumulated rust and a drop in form since his belt days could make this a tough fight for him. If Souza wants to win this, he will need to get Weidman to the floor, as Weidman is a superior boxer, while Souza is the better wrestler. Souza averages more than three takedowns per match. Given the time away from the Octagon that Weidman has had, it’s hard to see Souza not finishing this bout on the ground. UFC 230 Prediction: Souza wins via submission Jason Knight vs Jordan Rinaldi gives us a new contender in Knight, who has picked up three bonuses in a four-bout winning streak — but then has lost three straight, including a pair of ugly decision losses to Gabriel Benitez and Makwan Amirkhani. Of his 20 wins, 13 have come through submission (10 via a form of choke). Rinaldi has won six of his last eight, but his last bout resulted in a loss to Gregor Gillespie on the ground. He has not fought at the featherweight classification in three years. That shift is going to cause him some discomfort — as will Knight’s ground game. UFC 230 Prediction: Knight wins via submission