Should You Bet Early or Late for Super Bowl LII?

The line for the Super Bowl LII, between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots, was the widest since in nine seasons, with the Patriots starting as 5 ½-point favorites (6 ½ on some books). That line has moved to a consistent 5 or 5 ½ points on the vast majority of books. The game, of course, won’t take place until February 4, so the line could move one way or the other, depending on which side the money flows in on. Should you bet now, or should you wait and see? Let’s take a look at some Super Bowl betting insights on this question.

Should You Bet Early or Late for Super Bowl LII?

The number 5 is considered a dead number on a sportsline. Why? Because the books can move the number around without as much danger of getting middled. When a line is stuck on a number such as 3, 4, or 7, this is a much bigger risk for the books to take. What is middling? Let’s say that a point spread is three for a game. However, it might slide up from -2.5 to -3.5 in the last few days before the game. Let’s say that Team A is favored to win, and ends up winning by exactly three points. Bettors who took the action for Team A at -2.5 and then, when the line slid up to -3.5, took Team B at +3.5. They would win on both of those wagers. Most games don’t have the betting volume this far out as the Super Bowl does. However, with the teams off next week, you wouldn’t expect to see any major injuries taking place between now and the championship game. You might see some people come back from injuries during this window, but there aren’t any major contributors on either side who are awaiting a return — except for the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski. He had what looked like a concussion in the AFC Championship, late in the second quarter, and did not return. The Patriots are hopeful that he will return, but it has not yet been confirmed. Given how much he means to the Patriot offense, you might consider waiting to bet.

So What Should You Do?

In the first week of Super Bowl LII betting, the action generally favors the underdog. Given the fact that the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 16 Super Bowls, that’s proven to be a wise pick. In this particular instance, that trend is likely to be even stronger than usual, as Philadelphia dealt Minnesota a 38-7 shellacking in the NFC Championship, while New England had to struggle to come back against a Jacksonville team that was a 9 ½-point underdog in that contest. Then, let’s consider the Patriots’ performance in their tremendous Super Bowl run. Their largest margin of victory in any Super Bowl has been six points, which they put up in last year’s overtime win. When the Patriots and the Eagles met in 2005, the Patriots were favored by seven — but only won by three.

So What Does This Mean?

By the time we get to Sunday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line at New England -4. As more and more people think about whether Nick Foles can move the ball on the game’s biggest stage and reflect on his solid performance against Atlanta and his dominant performance against Minnesota, they are more and more likely to take those 5 ½ points and side with Philadelphia. Remember — Atlanta and Minnesota were both seen as six points better than the Eagles (3-point lines on the road). So, if you’re going to take the Eagles, bet now, before that line moves down. If you think the Patriots can cover, then why not wait? The influx of money is not likely to be on your side, unless Nick Foles pops an ACL in practice. If the number drops to four, then the Patriots don’t have to do as much to cover. Given that this game — like so many other Patriot Super Bowls — is likely to go down to the last possession, that difference of one point could prove immense.