The 2022 NFL draft concluded with the San Francisco 49ers’ selection of quarterback Brock Purdy out of Iowa State. The nickname bestowed on the final draft choice each year is “Mr. Irrelevant,” and heading into the 2022 regular season, few could have foreseen the role Purdy would play for the 49ers. The starting quarterback, Trey Lance, went down with a season-ending foot injury in Week 2, and Jimmy Garoppolo led the team to some surprising success before going on the shelf as well. In came Brock Purdy to lead the 49ers on a winning streak that would not end until Purdy’s own injury, which sent him out of the NFC Championship. This season, he has taken up right where he left off in 2022, and he has the 49ers in the Super Bowl. He has been criticized as a mere “game manager,” but his clutch throws and runs against Detroit keyed a comeback from a 24-7 halftime deficit to a 34-31 win. Let’s look at five reasons why the 49ers will win their first world championship since 1994, as you plan your NFL betting ahead of the Super Bowl.
NFL Betting Analysis: 5 Reasons Why San Francisco 49ers Will Win Super Bowl LVIII
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Nick Bosa and the pass rush
Patrick Mahomes took two sacks against Baltimore, which was pretty much the only blemish on his day. With Chase Young now a part of the San Francisco pass rush, offensive linemen can’t turn as much of their attention on Bosa, and he has benefited; in 11 career playoff games, he has posted 10 sacks. When they met in Super Bowl LIV, he sacked Mahomes once, and I expect him to lead the torrent against Mahomes again.
Christian McCaffrey
We read a lot about the great things that Brock Purdy has brought to the San Francisco offense, but let’s remember that until the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey during the 2022 season, the 49ers’ offense wasn’t all that elite. McCaffrey took the burden of the running game off a wide receiver (Deebo Samuel) and added a superior component to an offense that relies heavily on the ground game. For the regular season, McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards per rush and had 44 different carries of at least 10 yards. He had two backbreaking touchdowns in the comeback win over Green Bay two weeks ago, and he will find opportunities to crack the Kansas City defense also.
| Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +2 | +110 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco | -2 | -130 | O 47.5 |
A wealth of playmakers
According to ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, it will be challenging for the Chiefs to shut down all of the weapons that the 49ers have. Brandon Aiyuk was the top receiver in the NFL in the ESPN RTM catch score (96) and overall score (98). Deebo Samuel was the best receiver in yards-after-catch (YAC) score (83). George Kittle had the best overall score among tight ends (84), and Christian McCaffrey had the best catch score among all tailbacks (99). Who will the Chiefs focus on? It could turn into a night of whack-a-mole for the Kansas City D.
Chase Young
Young has “only” 20 pressures and 2 ½ sacks since coming over from Washington. Nick Bosa has been doing a great deal of the work, but Young helped pressure Jared Goff in the second half, when the 49ers’ defense figured out how to take some of the punch out of the Detroit attack, despite the Lions using so much five-man protection and having other blockers to put elsewhere.
Brock Purdy
Purdy took some heat for the trouble he had gripping the ball against Green Bay on a rainy night, but he calmly came back from that noise – and an ugly first half against Detroit – and led his team to victory. Lamar Jackson panicked in the AFC Championship. Jordan Love got lazy late and tried to hang a pass across his body in the NFC divisional round and paid the price. Jared Goff and the Detroit offense blinked in a key four-minute stretch that let the 49ers up off the mat. Purdy has the ability to forget negative outcomes and focus on the next series. That instinct to focus on your strengths and avoid negativity will also serve Purdy on the game’s biggest stage.
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