Updated Odds to Win the AFC – January 2nd Edition

After a wild Week 17 to the National Football League regular season — including a Sunday Night Football matchup between Indianapolis and Tennessee with the sixth seed in the AFC on the line in a win-or-go-home matchup — the AFC’s playoff picture is finally set. Baltimore had to hold off a furious rally by the Cleveland Browns — the seven-win Cleveland Browns — to win the AFC North and save their own postseason lives. New England earned another bye, but for once that came down to Week 17 as well. With the six postseason slots in the AFC all set, let’s take a look at the NFL odds for each remaining contender and our thoughts about each team’s chances to make it to Super Bowl LIII.

Updated Odds to Win the AFC – January 2nd Edition

Wrapped up the regular season on 🔝 of the AFC for the first time under the current playoff format. https://t.co/OKznYEiQir

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 2, 2019

• Kansas City Chiefs                                                               7/4
• New England Patriots                                                          9/4
• Baltimore Ravens                                                                 6/1
• Los Angeles Chargers                                                         7/1
• Houston Texans                                                                    10/1
• Indianapolis Colts                                                                 10/1

The Kansas City Chiefs have a terrific offense, but their defense is porous, and that’s a generous description. Teams can grind them down with the run, their secondary can’t cover fast receivers, and their linebackers are slow. Their offense may be good enough to turn the playoffs into a video-game type of exhibition that leads them to a title, but the defense is not playoff-caliber. If we look at the past and see that the Chiefs have had major issues closing out postseason games in past years (such as their shocking home loss to Tennessee last year, when they opened up a 21-point lead at halftime, only to lose, 22-21), then we see a team that has problems finishing people off. It’s their offense that has them atop the odds table, and that offense will need to keep firing on all cylinders for the Chiefs to win their first Super Bowl in 49 years. New England is riding high on their reputation in the odds table here, but it is also true that they still have the combination of Tom Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick at head coach. The team did lose Josh Gordon to an indefinite suspension, leaving them with less than impressive receiving options, but Brady still has enough options in his offense to lead the Patriots to victories. Can the Patriots pull off wins over such quarterbacks as Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck and/or Patrick Mahomes? There’s the mental advantage that New England has as the perennial favorite, and that advantage plays a huge role. Baltimore is one of a handful of teams in this postseason that relies more on its defense to win games, and they also have a unique offense with Lamar Jackson running the show. Using a variety of RPO looks as well as an old school return to the college option look, Baltimore has taken advantage of NFL defenses that are used to defending a pass-first attack. For the Ravens to push deep into these playoffs, it will be their defense that leads the way. The secondary has tightened up significantly in the second half of the season, making this potentially the most dangerous team in the AFC bracket. It’s hard to know which version of the Los Angeles Chargers will show up in the postseason. They have a first-round matchup because they couldn’t keep up with the Chiefs in the division, despite a furious rally down the stretch. This team might have the best shot of any to go to Kansas City and win, since they already did it once, but the Chargers’ defense will have a huge task ahead of them. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa lead a defensive unit that harass passers and keep offenses from mounting sustained drives. But can Rivers avoid his careerlong habit of throwing picks at just the wrong time? The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both mounted huge rallies in the second half of the season to make the playoffs. However, both of them have flaws that make them likely to exit by the divisional round. Houston’s offensive line can’t open holes for the running game or giving Deshaun Watson time to pass, so he’s living with his speed running out of the pocket to find plays down the field. Losing wideout Demaryius Thomas for the season means that opposing secondaries can key on DeAndre Hopkins and limit the Texans’ offense. On defense, the front seven are tough, but the secondary gives up big plays. The Colts are exciting to watch, thanks to the resurgence of Andrew Luck, but it’s hard to see him keeping up with the Chiefs, even if he can get his team past Houston on the road.