NCAA Football Week 5 Against the Spread Picks

One of the more bizarre finishes in recent years in college football took place in Dallas last week, as SMU and Navy ended up going to overtime. Navy scored on their first possession, and SMU responded with a touchdown but then lined up to go for a two-point conversion, rather than opting to kick the single and head to a second round of overtime. SMU broke out a bizarre play that coach Sonny Dykes said he found using a Google search. An interior lineman split out into the slot (but inside a wide receiver), and then quarterback Ben Hicks completed a pass for the conversion. Win for SMU….but not so fast. The officials huddled for several minutes and then went to a video review to confirm the legality of the play, even though there was no flag for illegal formation. SMU’s win was upheld, but the fans in Dallas had a nervous few minutes. What drama will unfold this week? Check out our top three NCAA Football Week 5 against the spread picks. As always, home teams are in all caps.

NCAA Football Week 5 Against the Spread Picks

College Football Rankings 2018: Week 5 AP Top 25 poll released https://t.co/Vu8Y9N1RON

— College Football (@CFB) September 23, 2018

Thursday, September 27

North Carolina (+18) over MIAMI (FL) (8:00pm ET, ESPN)

Will Miami roll to a win over North Carolina? Yes — but by 18 points? First of all, this is a Thursday night, which means a short preparation week for both teams. It also tends to mean in college, much like the NFL, more of a grinding game from both sides. Miami did beat Savannah State by 77 and Toledo by 25, but they only took down Florida International by 14 on Saturday, with quarterback N’Kosi Perry throwing three touchdown passes and an interception and tailback Travis Homer rumbling for 114 yards and a score. However, North Carolina has covered the spread in four straight conference games as well as in each of their last four games against a team with a record above .500. They have also covered the spread in five of seven overall. They were able to put up 38 points on a Pitt team that is right in the middle of the ranks as far as the ACC goes, and Miami hasn’t yet shown whether they are going to be contenders or not after that ugly loss to LSU in the opener. I see the ‘Canes winning at home, but it won’t be a blowout. NCAA Football Week 5 Prediction: Miami 24, North Carolina 20

Saturday, September 29

Oklahoma State (-18) over KANSAS (12:00pm ET)

Oklahoma State will be ready to make a statement after getting routed by Texas Tech, 41-17, at home a week ago. Taylor Cornelius has done a decent job replacing Mason Rudolph in the Cowboys’ offense, completing almost 60 percent of his passes, but the Texas Tech defense was able to shut down the Oklahoma State attack last week. Even with the 17-point letdown, though, the Cowboys still average 43.5 points per game. Their defense is an issue, as they allow 23 points per contest. This week, though, the Cowboys should have enough defense. Kansas took a 28-7 loss against Baylor last week, and the Bears are well below the Cowboys on offensive prowess. Kansas has gotten a 60 percent completion rate from quarterback Peyton Bender this season, along with four touchdown passes, but Kansas has the talent to knock off FCS and mid-major teams — not teams like Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games after failing to cover the week before. They have also covered in five of the last seven meetings up in Lawrence. NCAA Football Week 5 Prediction: Oklahoma State 44, Kansas 16

TCU (-10.5) over Iowa State (7:00pm ET, ESPNU)

Iowa State has struggled out of the gate, having an FCS game against South Dakota State canceled due to weather and then losing at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma before beating mid-major Akron a week ago, 26-13. Now the Cyclones head south to Fort Worth to take on a frustrated TCU team that lost by 15 points at Texas in Week 4. Iowa State beat three ranked teams a year ago but doesn’t seem to have quite the same punch at least to this point. TCU is on the brink of a three-game losing streak that would be their first in five years. They followed up a 12-point “home” loss (at AT&T Stadium instead of on campus) to Ohio State with a 15-point setback at Texas in which TCU gave up 21 unanswered points. Quarterback Shawn Robinson has been solid this season, completing 61 percent of his passes, but his interceptions against Texas were a real problem. That vaunted Frog defense gave up too much late to Texas as well. This doesn’t look like the same Iowa State team to me, so I’m picking the Frogs to win and cover. NCAA Football Week 5 Prediction: TCU 37, Iowa State 20