2018 Mexican Grand Prix Odds & Betting Preview

Formula 1 races often feature fewer crazy finishes than their NASCAR counterparts, but the finish we saw last week at the USA Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas pushed Sebastian Vettel off the podium entirely as Kimi Raikkonen took the win for Ferrari and Max Verstappen came in just over a second later for Red Bull, leaving the favorite, Lewis Hamilton, to settle for third, just over two seconds out of first place. Now the circuit heads south to Mexico City for the last leg of the last back-to-back set of races of the 2018 Formula 1 season. The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez has a higher elevation than any other course on the circuit, which can make for some challenges for the drivers and the cars. Take a look at our Formula 1 odds & preview for this weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix as you consider your own wagering choices.

2018 Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview

Driver Odds to WIn the 2018 Mexican Grand Prix 

• Sebastian Vettel                                                                                                        13/8
• Lewis Hamilton                                                                                                         7/4
• Max Verstappen                                                                                                        7/2
• Kimi Raikkonen                                                                                                         10/1
• Daniel Ricciardo                                                                                                       11/1
• Valtteri Bottas                                                                                                           16/1
• Charles Leclerc, Kevin Magnusson, Pierre Gasly                                                1000/1
• Esteban Ocon, Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz, Nico Hulkenberg,
• Romain Grosjean                                                                                                      1500/1
• Fernando Alonso, Marcus Ericsson                                                                       2000/1
• Brendon Hartley, Steffel Vandoorne                                                                      3000/1
• Lance Stroll, Sergey Sirotkin                                                                                  4000/1

As far as the altitude of the race goes, the primary influence is on the power unit, but the cooling systems will see some impact as well — not to mention the pit crews and the drivers. The air in Mexico City is significantly thinner than it was in Austin last week — and than it is in any of the other cities that the Formula 1 circuit visits. That elevates the physical challenges for everyone else involved. The stadium at Turns 13 and 14 is also an unusual feature that draws boisterous crowds, influencing the experience of the drivers as they come through that corner. Another by-product of the altitude is a decrease in downforce and drag, and the cars will act differently as a result. The tires will react differently, thanks on one hand to the lengthy straightaway on this course and the necessity to meet the challenge of a high stopping speed. As a result, understanding when to change tires will likely make a significant difference in the outcome this week.

How about the drivers?

Lewis Hamilton was the only top-five finisher in the United States Grand Prix to make two pit stops, and that decision doubtless played a role in his uncharacteristic third-place position. Hamilton noted that the floor of his car took some damage from debris on the track, and both of the Mercedes drivers had to change out their water pumps on the morning of the race. The rainy weather in Texas meant that drivers could not get out on the course on the Friday before the race. The fact that the Mercedes tires suffered more than their competitors did is another factor for Hamilton’s crew to consider going in. Hamilton only needs to finish in the top seven in Mexico in order to clinch the driver’s championship for the season, which may explain Vettel’s status as the favorite, as he will have significantly more desperation as he wants to climb back up the standings. However, with Mercedes likely to figure out the issues that caused the necessity of the second pit stop, it is hard to bet against Hamilton this season. Vettel failed to take advantage of the opportunity that Mercedes provided when he got into a collision and spin with Daniel Ricciardo in the first lap, and the gap that opened between him and the leaders was simply too large for him to overcome in the rest of the race. Mercedes also has the lead in the constructors’ championship, although their third-place finish narrowed their lead in those standings as well. I like Hamilton to win here and deliver an emphatic statement as he clinches his fifth world driving championship.