Early Betting Predictions for the 2018 NFL Season

We’re getting closer to NFL training camp season, with the 32 teams starting to hold mandatory minicamps (which means that Tom Brady has finally shown up to take over first-team reps on offense from Brian Hoyer, a development that has to have Patriots fans breathing a deep sigh of relief). As you start thinking about your 2018 NFL betting strategy for professional football this year, take a look at some of our early thoughts about what you can expect.

Early Betting Predictions for the 2018 NFL Season

The Jaguars secondary allowed the lowest catch percentage in the NFL last season! pic.twitter.com/Up8BpwvX7G

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) June 4, 2018

Week 1: Take Baltimore (-4.5) over Buffalo at home

Buffalo comes in with AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen as their three quarterbacks. McCarron is unproven, Peterman has been dreadful, and Allen is a rookie. The Baltimore Ravens may still have a pedestrian offense with Joe Flacco at the helm, but the Ravens will still have one of the beter defenses in the NFL next year. So I’m liking that defense to give some fits to whichever of these three untested quarterbacks ends up starting the opener.

Week 1: Take Minnesota (-5.5) over San Francisco at home

Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo looked terrific down the stretch for the 49ers this season, as the long march of sad quarterbacks since Colin Kaepernick’s departure looked like it might never end. But then the Niners were able to take advantage of some strife between Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft, and they ended up getting Garoppolo for a song — and he has San Francisco in the mix of playoff conversations this year. However, Minnesota still has the league’s best defense and will have a terrific arm of their own Kirk Cousins. I’m not saying the 49ers won’t make the playoffs, but they will get a rude awakening in Minnesota for the opener.

Week 1: Take the New York Giants (+4) at home against Jacksonville

I don’t see Blake Bortles coming back with the same form that he showed down the stretch in the playoffs — not after he folded in the fourth quarter in New England. I see some regression coming — and the Giants have the talent on defense to make him pay in the opener. The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. looking for some redemption on offense, and they will have rookie Saquon Barkley carrying the ball behind Eli Manning. The Giants are champing for a chance at redemption, and the Jaguars will be their first victims.

Week 1: Take the L.A. Chargers (-3) over Kansas City at home

Don’t look now, but the descendants of Air Coryell have a pretty stout defense, and the Chargers will face a new starting quarterback when the Kansas City Chiefs roll in with Patrick Mahomes II at the helm. The Chiefs showed some big holes on defense at the wrong times last year, most notably in the home playoff game they blew against Tennessee. Philip Rivers and the Charger offense will expose the holes in that defense and roll to a big win.

Season win totals: Take Cincinnati to finish under 7

Their divisional opponents are Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland. They don’t have the offense to beat Pittsburgh or Baltimore at home or away, and I have Cleveland winning the home matchup between these home teams. That’s a 1-5 divisional record. They start at Indianapolis (questionable), and then visit Carolina (loss) and Atlanta (loss) after a home loss to Baltimore. They host Miami (questionable) and Pittsburgh (loss) before heading to Kansas City (loss, as the Chiefs will have things figured out by then, at least enough to beat the Bengals). They host Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers (loss) going into their bye and could well be 1-7 at that point. Then they host New Orleans (loss — have you seen Drew Brees)? They visit Baltimore (loss) and host Cleveland (win), so now they’d be 2-9. They host Case Keenum and the Denver Broncos for their quirky win of the season, and then lose out, as they head to the Chargers, host Oakland and then finish at Cleveland and Pittsburgh with a 3-13 record. Even if some more bounces go their way, that’s well under seven wins.